Solar-Terrestrial Physics Solar-Terrestrial Physics Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2500-0535 113772 10.12737/stp-121202603 dwieav Results of current research Results of current research Results of current research Space debris effect on solar radiation propagation Space debris effect on solar radiation propagation Вениаминов Станислав Сергеевич Veniaminov Stanislav Sergeevich sveniami@gmail.com

доктор технических наук;

doctor of technical sciences;

 Козлов Станислав Иванович Kozlov Stanislav Ivanovich s_kozlov@inbox.ru

доктор физико-математических наук;

doctor of physical and mathematical sciences;

 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1030-8581 Кузьмичева Марина Юрьевна Kuzmicheva Marina Yuryevna mukuzm@idg.ras.ru

кандидат физико-математических наук;

candidate of physical and mathematical sciences;

 Научно-исследовательский испытательный центр ЦНИИ ВКС МО РФ Москва Россия Central Research Institute of Aerospace Forces, Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation Moscow Russian Federation Научно-исследовательский испытательный центр ЦНИИ ВКС МО РФ Москва Россия Central Research Institute of Aerospace Forces, Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation Moscow Russian Federation Институт динамики геосфер имени академика М.А. Садовского РАН Москва Россия Sadovsky Institute of Geosphere Dynamics RAS Moscow Russian Federation Институт динамики геосфер имени академика М.А. Садовского РАН Москва Россия Sadovsky Institute of Geosphere Dynamics RAS Moscow Russian Federation 25 03 2026 25 03 2026 12 1 18 21 16 06 2025 01 10 2025 https://zh-szf.ru/en/nauka/article/113772/view

The growing amount of space debris (SD) in near-Earth space already poses a threat to space activities, interferes with astronomical observations, and may lead to negative environmental consequences on Earth in the future. This paper estimates the current attenuation of solar radiation in the wavelength range from vacuum ultraviolet to infrared. We determine the rate of exponential increase in SD mass. Estimates of the future SD mass are also obtained at which the logarithm of solar radiation attenuation will increase to 10⁻⁶–10⁻³. We find the time required for the logarithm of solar radiation attenuation to increase to 10⁻⁶.

The growing amount of space debris (SD) in near-Earth space already poses a threat to space activities, interferes with astronomical observations, and may lead to negative environmental consequences on Earth in the future. This paper estimates the current attenuation of solar radiation in the wavelength range from vacuum ultraviolet to infrared. We determine the rate of exponential increase in SD mass. Estimates of the future SD mass are also obtained at which the logarithm of solar radiation attenuation will increase to 10⁻⁶–10⁻³. We find the time required for the logarithm of solar radiation attenuation to increase to 10⁻⁶.

 space debris solar radiation environmental safety space debris solar radiation environmental safety The work was carried out under Government Assignment of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Project No. 125012200624-5) The work was carried out under Government Assignment of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Project No. 125012200624-5)

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