Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov (Department of Socio-Cultural Design and Development of Territories, professor)
Moskva, Moscow, Russian Federation
The relevance of this study is determined by the fact that, in order to achieve the national goal of a "sustainable and dynamic economy," understanding the projected economic development prospects of the Russian Federation is essential. A significant revision of the country's GDP growth forecast, made by the Ministry of Economic Development in May 2026, raises questions about both the quality of the previous forecast and the quality of the forecasting approach itself, in terms of the accuracy and reliability of the results obtained. These circumstances determined the choice of research topic. The objective of this study is to forecast the expected level of GDP growth in the Russian Federation through 2030. The scientific novelty of the obtained results lies in the determination of the forecast values of the dynamics of the Russian Federation's GDP under optimistic, realistic and pessimistic scenarios, which largely determine the prospects for the country's socio-economic development. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the possibility of their use in planning the parameters of socio-economic development for 2027-2030.
forecast scenarios, socioeconomic development, Russian Federation
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