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  <journal-meta>
   <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Solnechno-Zemnaya Fizika</journal-id>
   <journal-title-group>
    <journal-title xml:lang="en">Solnechno-Zemnaya Fizika</journal-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Солнечно-земная физика</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </journal-title-group>
   <issn publication-format="online">2712-9640</issn>
  </journal-meta>
  <article-meta>
   <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">13666</article-id>
   <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.12737/22210</article-id>
   <article-categories>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="ru">
     <subject>Обзоры</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="en">
     <subject>Reviews </subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group>
     <subject>Обзоры</subject>
    </subj-group>
   </article-categories>
   <title-group>
    <article-title xml:lang="en">Relativistic electrons of the outer radiation belt and methods of their forecast (review)</article-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Релятивистские электроны внешнего радиационного пояса  и методы их прогноза (обзор)</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </title-group>
   <contrib-group content-type="authors">
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4864-0993</contrib-id>
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Потапов</surname>
       <given-names>Александр Сергеевич</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Potapov</surname>
       <given-names>Alexander Sergeevich</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>potapov@iszf.irk.ru</email>
     <bio xml:lang="ru">
      <p>доктор физико-математических наук;</p>
     </bio>
     <bio xml:lang="en">
      <p>doctor of physical and mathematical sciences;</p>
     </bio>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/>
    </contrib>
   </contrib-group>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-1">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Институт солнечно-земной физики СО РАН</institution>
     <city>Иркутск</city>
     <country>Россия</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics SB RAS</institution>
     <city>Irkutsk</city>
     <country>Russian Federation</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <pub-date publication-format="print" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2016-10-18T00:00:00+03:00">
    <day>18</day>
    <month>10</month>
    <year>2016</year>
   </pub-date>
   <pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2016-10-18T00:00:00+03:00">
    <day>18</day>
    <month>10</month>
    <year>2016</year>
   </pub-date>
   <volume>3</volume>
   <issue>1</issue>
   <fpage>46</fpage>
   <lpage>58</lpage>
   <self-uri xlink:href="https://zh-szf.ru/en/nauka/article/13666/view">https://zh-szf.ru/en/nauka/article/13666/view</self-uri>
   <abstract xml:lang="ru">
    <p>В статье дан обзор исследований по динамике релятивистских электронов в области гео-синхронной орбиты. Перечислены физические процессы, которые приводят к ускорению электронов, заполняющих внешний радиационный пояс. Являясь одним из факторов космической погоды, потоки высокоэнергичных электронов представляют серьезную угрозу для функционирования спутниковой аппаратуры в одной из наиболее заселенных орбитальных областей. Подчеркнута необходимость усилий по разработке методов прогноза радиационной обстановки в этой части магнитосферы, перечислены возможные предикторы и дана их классификация. Приведен пример прогностической модели для предсказания потока релятивистских электронов с заблаговременностью 1–2 сут. Обсуждаются некоторые вопросы практической организации прогнозирования, перечислены основные задачи краткосрочного, среднесрочного и долгосрочного прогнозов.</p>
   </abstract>
   <trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
    <p>The paper reviews studies of the dynamics of relativistic electrons in the geosynchronous region. It lists the physical processes that lead to the acceleration of electrons filling the outer radiation belt. As one of the space weather factors, high-energy electron fluxes pose a serious threat to the operation of satellite equipment in one of the most populated orbital regions. Necessity is emphasized for efforts to develop methods of forecasting the situation in this part of the magnetosphere, possible predictors are listed, and their classification is given. An example of a predictive model for forecasting relativistic electron flux with a lead time of 1–2 days is proposed. Some questions of practical organization of prediction are discussed; the main objectives of short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasts are listed.</p>
   </trans-abstract>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="ru">
    <kwd>радиационные пояса</kwd>
    <kwd>релятивистские электроны</kwd>
    <kwd>прогноз</kwd>
    <kwd>магнитосфера</kwd>
    <kwd>солнечный ветер</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
    <kwd>radiation belts</kwd>
    <kwd>relativistic electrons</kwd>
    <kwd>forecast</kwd>
    <kwd>magnetosphere</kwd>
    <kwd>solar wind</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
  </article-meta>
 </front>
 <body>
  <p>ВВЕДЕНИЕОдним из первых научных достижений начала космической эры было обнаружение в 1958 г. Дж. Ван Алленом и группами С.Н. Вернова и В.И. Красовского радиационных поясов Земли [Темный, 1993]. Именно В.И. Красовский первым предположил, что зарегистрированные на третьем советском спутнике электроны не достигали плотной атмосферы потому, что были захвачены магнитным полем Земли. Это открытие привело к формированию полноценного научного направления, изучающего динамику потоков энергичных частиц в геомагнитном поле. С одной стороны, перманентное наличие потоков заряженных частиц в магнитосфере является важнейшей характеристикой ее состояния, а с другой — радиационные пояса могут создавать серьезную угрозу для пилотируемых космических аппаратов, направляющихся к Луне, и мешать нормальной работе спутниковой аппаратуры.Считается, что в земной магнитосфере имеется два постоянно существующих радиационных пояса: внутренний, образуемый в основном протонами, и внешний, заселенный энергичными электронами. Такое разделение в значительной мере условно, поскольку, например, на магнитной оболочке L=1.2–1.5 существует стабильный пояс электронов с энергией Е&gt;20 МэВ [Гальпер и др., 1983]. Положение максимума потока протонов зависит от их энергии и сдвигается от L=1.5 до L=3 при уменьшении энергии от 100 МэВ до 1 МэВ. Пик интенсивности электронных потоков почти для всего диапазона энергий (от 40 кэВ до 2 МэВ) располагается в интервале магнитных оболочек L=5–6. На высоте геосинхронной орбиты концентрация электронов c энергией около 1 МэВ на три порядка превышает концентрацию протонов той же энергии, что сохраняет примерно равной плотность энергии этих частиц [Borovsky et al., 2016]. По наблюдениям геосинхронных спутников, энергетический спектр электронов в диапазоне от 50 кэВ до 1.5 МэВ подчиняется степенному закону; показатель степени может меняться в широких пределах — от –6 до –2 [Freeman et al., 1998; Xiao et al., 2008].В данном обзоре мы ограничимся ролью радиационных поясов в формировании космической погоды. В англоязычной литературе высокоэнергичные электроны внешнего радиационного пояса называют электронами-убийцами (killer electrons).</p>
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