Solar-Terrestrial Physics Solar-Terrestrial Physics Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2500-0535 23013 10.12737/stp-43201811 Results of current research Results of current research Results of current research Real-time forecast of MUF for radio paths from current data obtained from oblique sounding with continuous chirp signal Real-time forecast of MUF for radio paths from current data obtained from oblique sounding with continuous chirp signal Ильин Николай Викторович Ilyin Nikolay Viktorovich ilyin@iszf.irk.ru

кандидат физико-математических наук;

candidate of physical and mathematical sciences;

 Бубнова Татьяна Валентиновна Bubnova Tatyana Valentinovna btv@iszf.irk.ru https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6472-5006 Грозов Виктор Петрович Grozov Viktor Petrovich grozov@iszf.irk.ru

кандидат физико-математических наук;

candidate of physical and mathematical sciences;

 Пензин Максим Сергеевич Penzin Maksim Sergeevich penzin.maksim@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1371-6855 Пономарчук Сергей Николаевич Ponomarchuk Sergey Nikolaevich spon@iszf.irk.ru

кандидат физико-математических наук;

candidate of physical and mathematical sciences;

 Институт солнечно-земной физики СО РАН Иркутск Россия Institute of Solar Terrestrial Physics SB RAS Irkutsk Russian Federation Институт солнечно-земной физики СО РАН Иркутск Россия Institute of Solar Terrestrial Physics SB RAS Irkutsk Russian Federation Институт солнечно-земной физики СО РАН Иркутск Россия Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics SB RAS Irkutsk Russian Federation Институт солнечно-земной физики СО РАН Иркутск Россия Institute of Solar Terrestrial Physics SB RAS Irkutsk Russian Federation Институт солнечно-земной физики СО РАН Иркутск Россия Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics SB RAS Irkutsk Russian Federation 4 3 83 91 https://zh-szf.ru/en/nauka/article/23013/view

We present a technique of MUF real-time forecast based on time extrapolation for maximum observed frequencies smoothed over a long-term forecast along a given path. We have validated the technique of fitting current data from the long-term forecast, using the OPEMI model, transmission curve method for short paths, and method of normal waves for long paths (over 2000 km). This technique has been tested using data obtained at the chirp sounding network of ISTP SB RAS during periods of strong and weak solar activity. The quality of the forecast has been found to significantly improve in comparison to the long-term forecast, with advance intervals of real-time forecast from 15 to 30 min. The sessions, in which the real-time forecast error is less than 10 % for 15-min advance interval, comprise from 67 to 96 % of all sessions depending on season and radio path orientation.

We present a technique of MUF real-time forecast based on time extrapolation for maximum observed frequencies smoothed over a long-term forecast along a given path. We have validated the technique of fitting current data from the long-term forecast, using the OPEMI model, transmission curve method for short paths, and method of normal waves for long paths (over 2000 km). This technique has been tested using data obtained at the chirp sounding network of ISTP SB RAS during periods of strong and weak solar activity. The quality of the forecast has been found to significantly improve in comparison to the long-term forecast, with advance intervals of real-time forecast from 15 to 30 min. The sessions, in which the real-time forecast error is less than 10 % for 15-min advance interval, comprise from 67 to 96 % of all sessions depending on season and radio path orientation.

 ionosphere oblique ionospheric sounding real-time forecast radio path maximum usable frequency ionosphere oblique ionospheric sounding real-time forecast radio path maximum usable frequency

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