Safety in Technosphere Safety in Technosphere Безопасность в техносфере 1998-071X 4975 10.12737/8225 Научные основы формирования техносферы Scientific bases of technosphere formation Научные основы формирования техносферы Analysis of a Global Green Transition Анализ глобального «зеленого» перехода Мейер Нильс И. Meyer Niels I. Датский технический университет Technical University of Denmark 25 02 2015 25 02 2015 4 1 3 11 https://zh-szf.ru/en/nauka/article/4975/view

Смягчению глобального потепления и переходу к «зеленому» и устойчивому миру противостоят ряд барьеров и дилемм. В настоящей работе предпринят анализ некоторых барьеров и дилемм с целью выделения эффективных стратегий и решений для достижения устойчивого развития. В качестве примеров дилемм выделены следующие. • На физически конечной планете существуют пределы экономического и материального роста. Однако в большинстве индустриально развитых стран в условиях кризиса правительства призывают к дальнейшему росту. • Для ограничения роста требуется равенство, между тем в мире возрастает неравенство. • Для того чтобы избежать необратимых изменений, необходимо, чтобы увеличение средней глобальной температуры не превысило 2°С. Между тем, наблюдаемые в настоящее время тенденции обусловливают увеличение на 4 и более градусов. • Для того чтобы избежать роста средней глобальной температуры более чем на 2°С, по крайней мере 50% разведанных запасов ископаемого топлива должны оставаться в земных недрах. Между тем ряд индустриально развитых стран стимулируют освоение новых ископаемых энергетических ресурсов, таких как сланцевый газ и нефть битуминозных песчаников. • Прекращение роста численности населения облегчает переход к устойчивому развитию. Однако большинство правительств развитых стран выражают крайнюю обеспокоенность в связи со снижением численности населения в своих странах. • Центральной проблемой является тот факт, что «пределы роста» не воспринимаются серьезно финансовыми ведомствами индустриально развитых стран. Настоящая статья посвящена рассмотрению последствий «пределов роста» и поискам альтернативы «росту» для обеспечения занятости населения.

Mitigation of global warming and transitioning to a green and sustainable world are counteracted by a number of barriers and dilemmas. The paper analyzes a number of these barriers and dilemmas in order to highlight efficient strategies and solutions for a sustainable development. The dilemmas include the following examples: • There are limits to economic and material growth in a finite globe, but most governments in industrial countries are calling for more growth in a period of financial crisis. • More equity is required to stem the desire for growth, but inequity is increasing. • The increase in global temperature should stay below two degrees centigrade in order to avoid irreversible consequences, but the present path points to four degrees or more. • At least 50% of known reserves of fossil fuels must remain underground in order to avoid a temperature increase higher than two degrees, but a number of industrial countries are now promoting exploitation of new fossil sources like shale gas and oil from tar sand. • Reversing population growth facilitates sustainable development, but most governments of industrial nations appear to be more concerned about decreases in their population.

 устойчивая энергетика политические средства «зеленый» переход. sustainable energy policy means green transition.

1. IntroductionThe world is presently faced with a number of serious problems including global warming and climate change, limits to economic and material growth, increasing inequities, misleading economic models and theories, and financial crises. Most national governments in the Organisation For Economic Co-Operation And Development (OECD) attempt to maintain traditional growth rates based on neoliberal principles. However, they do not appear to realize that a sustainable future requires radical changes in political, economic and institutional systems on international and national levels.In relation to the problem of global warming, it has not been possible to date to obtain international commitments for binding reductions of CO2 emissions. However, there seems to be international consensus concerning the danger of irreversible consequences if the increase in global temperature is allowed to surpass two degrees centigrade. Recent analyses have concluded that in order to avoid this transition at least 50 % of known fossil reserves should remain untapped underground [IEA, 2012]. It is not obvious how this condition would be implemented in practice. Moreover, with the recent exploitation of non-traditional energy sources like shale gas and shale oil, the goal of limited use appears to be even more problematic. This issue should be high on the agenda of the united nations (UN), but so far it is not the case.This paper will focus on the role of the rich industrial countries, as they are responsible for most of the present problems. In addition, such countries have the necessary economic and technological power to implement a green transition to a world that is not dependent on fossil fuels.However, it should not be overlooked that there are a number of barriers for this transition. Strong financial power is connected to vested interests in production of fossil fuels, while concern about sustainable development is relegated as a low priority on the money-based agenda. Here, significant changes are needed to yield less power to the market and private vested interests. The paper includes concrete proposals for such changes.

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