кандидат экономических наук;
candidate of economic sciences;
Основным источником финансовых ресурсов государства являются налоговые поступления. Актуальность темы статьи обусловлена тем, что в современных экономических реалиях Российской Федерации вопрос обеспечения стабильности государственного бюджета приобретает особую значимость. Проведенное исследование показало, что налоговая реформа 2025 года должна привести к приросту налогоплательщиков, применяющих упрощенную систему налогообложения (УСН). При этом на рост повлияют не только новые субъекты предпринимательства, но и те налогоплательщики, которые откажутся от общего режима налогообложения в пользу УСН. Таким образом, в основу оценки фискального эффекта трансформации УСН легла типизация групп налогоплательщиков в зависимости от налоговой политики бизнеса.
The article is based on an urgent topic and is due to the fact that in the modern economic realities of the Russian Federation, the issue of ensuring the stability of the state budget is of particular importance. The tax reform of 2025 is aimed at solving this problem, which is aimed at optimizing the tax system and increasing the efficiency of tax collection. Within the framework of this reform, special attention is paid to the problem of leveling the budget deficit and potentially achieving a surplus, which is crucial for maintaining economic stability and implementing social programs of the state. One of the directions of this reform is to increase the thresholds for the possibility of switching to the simplified taxation system (STS) when making some changes related to the payment of VAT in this regime. Research materials include official government documents, statistics from Rosstat and the Federal Tax Service, scientific publications, analysis from international organizations, expert interviews, and conference presentations. These approaches help to understand the mechanisms of interaction between the tax system and the state budget, as well as to determine the possible consequences of tax reform for the country's economy. An element of scientific novelty is expressed in the author's attempt to predict tax revenues to the country's budget based on a retrospective analysis of changes in the number of taxpayers with the advent of new tax regimes and taking into account the characteristics of taxpayers providing an increase in the number of those applying the simplified taxation system The study showed that the tax reform of 2025 should lead to the growth of companies that will switch from the main to the main mode, as they will meet the necessary requirements, and will also be able to obtain certain savings on optimizing the tax burden by saving on corporate income tax. That is, for the first time, the STS regime will be of interest to those taxpayers who, even if they comply with the simplified tax rules, were forced to apply the STS for the possibility of using VAT deductions.