Solar-Terrestrial Physics Solar-Terrestrial Physics Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2500-0535 109235 10.12737/stp-114202512 20TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE “PLASMA PHYSICS IN THE SOLAR SYSTEM”. FEBRUARY 10–14, 2025, SPACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE RAS, MOSCOW, RUSSIA 20TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE “PLASMA PHYSICS IN THE SOLAR SYSTEM”. FEBRUARY 10–14, 2025, SPACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE RAS, MOSCOW, RUSSIA 20TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE “PLASMA PHYSICS IN THE SOLAR SYSTEM”. FEBRUARY 10–14, 2025, SPACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE RAS, MOSCOW, RUSSIA Forecast of geomagnetic storms in April–November 2024 based on cosmic ray monitoring results Forecast of geomagnetic storms in April–November 2024 based on cosmic ray monitoring results https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0011-6102 Зверев Антон Сергеевич Zverev Anton Sergeevich zverevas@ikfia.ysn.ru https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1348-4708 Григорьев Владислав Георгиевич Grigoryev Vladislav Georgievich grig@ikfia.ysn.ru

кандидат физико-математических наук;

candidate of physical and mathematical sciences;

 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2343-1618 Стародубцев Сергей Анатольевич Starodubtsev Sergei Anatolyevich starodub@ikfia.ysn.ru

доктор физико-математических наук;

doctor of physical and mathematical sciences;

 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2184-8089 Гололобов Петр Юрьевич Gololobov Peter Yur'evich gpeter@ikfia.sbras.ru Институт космофизических исследований и аэрономии им. Ю.Г. Шафера СО РАН Якутск Россия Yu.G. Shafer Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy SB RAS Yakutsk Russian Federation Институт космофизических исследований и аэрономии им. Ю.Г. Шафера СО РАН Якутск Россия Yu.G. Shafer Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy SB RAS Yakutsk Russian Federation Институт космофизических исследований и аэрономии им. Ю.Г. Шафера СО РАН Якутск Россия Yu.G. Shafer Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy SB RAS Yakutsk Russian Federation Институт космофизических исследований и аэрономии им. Ю.Г. Шафера СО РАН Якутск Россия Yu.G. Shafer Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy SB RAS Yakutsk Russian Federation 10 12 2025 10 12 2025 11 4 116 119 07 03 2025 25 08 2025 https://zh-szf.ru/en/nauka/article/109235/view

Since 2013, continuous monitoring of spatial-angular distribution of CRs for each hour of measurements has been carried out at SHICRA SB RAS, using data from the international neutron monitor database NMDB and the method of real-time global survey. For this purpose, nine parameters of the CR distribution are automatically calculated which result from the first two angular moments of the spatial distribution function of particles in interplanetary space. Our earlier studies have shown that before the onset of most geomagnetic storms with the amplitude of the geomagnetic activity Dst index lower than –50 nT there is a sharp increase in amplitudes of north-south components of CR distribution. This can serve as a predictor of the onset of geomagnetic disturbances with a lead time from several hours to 1–2 days. This paper presents the results of forecasting of geomagnetic storms with a Dst amplitude <–50 nT, observed in April–November 2024. It is also shown that the appearance of false predictors is associated with Earth’s entry into large-scale SW disturbances without geomagnetic effects.

Since 2013, continuous monitoring of spatial-angular distribution of CRs for each hour of measurements has been carried out at SHICRA SB RAS, using data from the international neutron monitor database NMDB and the method of real-time global survey. For this purpose, nine parameters of the CR distribution are automatically calculated which result from the first two angular moments of the spatial distribution function of particles in interplanetary space. Our earlier studies have shown that before the onset of most geomagnetic storms with the amplitude of the geomagnetic activity Dst index lower than –50 nT there is a sharp increase in amplitudes of north-south components of CR distribution. This can serve as a predictor of the onset of geomagnetic disturbances with a lead time from several hours to 1–2 days. This paper presents the results of forecasting of geomagnetic storms with a Dst amplitude <–50 nT, observed in April–November 2024. It is also shown that the appearance of false predictors is associated with Earth’s entry into large-scale SW disturbances without geomagnetic effects.

 cosmic rays neutron monitor global survey geomagnetic storms zonal components predictors cosmic rays neutron monitor global survey geomagnetic storms zonal components predictors The work was financially supported by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Project FWRS-2021-0012) The work was financially supported by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Project FWRS-2021-0012)

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