Solar-Terrestrial Physics Solar-Terrestrial Physics Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2500-0535 57896 10.12737/stp-93202301 Results of current research Results of current research Results of current research Solar activity cycle 25: the first three years Solar activity cycle 25: the first three years Язев Сергей Арктурович Yazev Sergey Arkturovich syazev@gmail.com

доктор физико-математических наук;

doctor of physical and mathematical sciences;

 Исаева Елена Сергеевна Isaeva Elena Sergeevna ele3471@yandex.ru Хос-Эрдэнэ Баттулга Hos-Erdene Battulga battulgakhoserdene.03@gmail.com Институт солнечно-земной физики СО РАН Иркутск Россия Institute of Solar Terrestrial Physics SB RAS Irkutsk Russian Federation Иркутский государственный университет Иркутск Россия Irkutsk State University Irkutsk Russian Federation Иркутский государственный университет Иркутск Россия Irkutsk State University Irkutsk Russian Federation Иркутский государственный университет Иркутск Россия Irkutsk State University Irkutsk Russian Federation 30 09 2023 30 09 2023 9 3 3 9 24 03 2023 11 05 2023 https://zh-szf.ru/en/nauka/article/57896/view

We analyze features of current solar activity cycle 25 for the first three years of its development (2020–2022). Compared to cycle 24, the current cycle is shown to exceed the previous one in the number of sunspot groups (1.5 times), the number of flares (1.8 times), and the total flare index (1.5 times). We have found that distributions of sunspot groups during cycles 24 and 25 differ in maximum area. Solar cycle 25, unlike cycle 24, exhibits the most significant increase in the number of sunspot groups with areas up to 30 pmh and in the interval from 570 to 1000 pmh. In contrast to cycle 24, the degree of north-south asymmetry in cycle 25 is significantly reduced. This allows us to predict an increased height of cycle 25, as compared to cycle 24 (by 20–50 %), in accordance with the Gnevyshev—Ol rule, as well as the possible unimodal nature of the cycle.

We analyze features of current solar activity cycle 25 for the first three years of its development (2020–2022). Compared to cycle 24, the current cycle is shown to exceed the previous one in the number of sunspot groups (1.5 times), the number of flares (1.8 times), and the total flare index (1.5 times). We have found that distributions of sunspot groups during cycles 24 and 25 differ in maximum area. Solar cycle 25, unlike cycle 24, exhibits the most significant increase in the number of sunspot groups with areas up to 30 pmh and in the interval from 570 to 1000 pmh. In contrast to cycle 24, the degree of north-south asymmetry in cycle 25 is significantly reduced. This allows us to predict an increased height of cycle 25, as compared to cycle 24 (by 20–50 %), in accordance with the Gnevyshev—Ol rule, as well as the possible unimodal nature of the cycle.

 solar activity cycle sunspots solar flares north-south asymmetry solar activity cycle sunspots solar flares north-south asymmetry The work was carried out using the Unique Research Facility “Astrophysical complex of MSU-ISU” with financial support from the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Agreement 13.UNU.21.0007, Government Assignment FZZE-2020-0017, FZZE-2020-0024, and Subsidy No. 075-GZ/Ts3569/278) The work was carried out using the Unique Research Facility “Astrophysical complex of MSU-ISU” with financial support from the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Agreement 13.UNU.21.0007, Government Assignment FZZE-2020-0017, FZZE-2020-0024, and Subsidy No. 075-GZ/Ts3569/278)

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Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1986, 296 p. (In Russian). URL: https://www.sidc.be/silso/forecasts (accessed February 15, 2023). URL: https://www.sidc.be/silso/forecasts (accessed February 15, 2023). URL: https://www.sidc.be/silso/monthlyhemisphericplot (accessed February 15, 2023). URL: https://www.sidc.be/silso/monthlyhemisphericplot (accessed February 15, 2023). URL: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression (accessed February 15, 2023). URL: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression (accessed February 15, 2023 Golovko A.A. Possibility of diagnostics of the beginning of solar cycle 25 based on its precursors at mid-heliolatitudes. Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 2020, vol. 60, no. 6, pp. 684-692. DOI: 10.1134/S0016793220060055. Golovko A.A. Possibility of diagnostics of the beginning of solar cycle 25 based on its precursors at mid-heliolatitudes. Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 2020, vol. 60, no. 6, pp. 684-692. DOI: 10.1134/S0016793220060055. Isaeva E.S., Tomozov V.M., Yasev S.A. X-ray flares and activity complexes on the Sun in solar cycle 24. Astronomy Rep. 2020, vol. 64, no. 1, pp. 58-65. DOI: 10.1134/S000462992001003X. Isaeva E.S., Tomozov V.M., Yasev S.A. X-ray flares and activity complexes on the Sun in solar cycle 24. Astronomy Rep. 2020, vol. 64, no. 1, pp. 58-65. DOI: 10.1134/S000462992001003X. Ishkov V.N. Sun in December 2009 - January 2010. Zemlya i Vselennaya [Earth and Universe]. 2010, no. 3, pp. 22-24. (In Russian). Ishkov V.N. Sun in December 2009 - January 2010. Zemlya i Vselennaya [Earth and Universe]. 2010, no. 3, pp. 22-24. (In Russian). Ishkov V.N. Space weather forecast: principles of the construction and boundaries of the implementation (experience of three cycles). Cosmic Res. 2017, vol. 55, no. 6, pp. 381-388. DOI: 10.1134/S0010952517060053. Ishkov V.N. Space weather forecast: principles of the construction and boundaries of the implementation (experience of three cycles). Cosmic Res. 2017, vol. 55, no. 6, pp. 381-388. DOI: 10.1134/S0010952517060053. Ishkov V.N. The Current 24th Cycle of Solar Activity in the Minimum Phase: Preliminary Results and Features of Development. Cosmic Res. 2020, vol. 58, pp. 436-443. DOI: 10.1134/S0010952520060064. Ishkov V.N. The Current 24th Cycle of Solar Activity in the Minimum Phase: Preliminary Results and Features of Development. Cosmic Res. 2020, vol. 58, pp. 436-443. DOI: 10.1134/S0010952520060064. Miletsky E.V., Ivanov V.G. Dynamic models for long-term and ultra-long-term forecasting of solar activity. Izvestiya RAN, Seriya physicheskaya [Bull. of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics]. 2006, vol. 70, no. 10, pp. 1443-1445. Miletsky E.V., Ivanov V.G. Dynamic models for long-term and ultra-long-term forecasting of solar activity. Izvestiya RAN, Seriya physicheskaya [Bull. of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics]. 2006, vol. 70, no. 10, pp. 1443-1445. Obridko V.N. Magnetic fields and activity indices. Plazmennaya geliofizika [Plasma Heliophysics]. 2008, vol. 1, p. 52. (In Russian). Obridko V.N. Magnetic fields and activity indices. Plazmennaya geliofizika [Plasma Heliophysics]. 2008, vol. 1, p. 52. (In Russian). Obridko V.N., Nagovitsyn Yu.A. Solnechnaya aktivnost’, tsiklichnost’ i metody prognoza [Solar activity, Cyclicity and Forecast Techniques]. Saint Petersburg, VVM Publ., 2017, 466 p. (In Russian). Obridko V.N., Nagovitsyn Yu.A. Solnechnaya aktivnost’, tsiklichnost’ i metody prognoza [Solar activity, Cyclicity and Forecast Techniques]. Saint Petersburg, VVM Publ., 2017, 466 p. (In Russian). Obridko V.N., Shelting B.D. Some anomalies in the evolution of global and large-scale magnetic fields on the Sun as predictors of some forthcoming low cycles. Pisma v Astronomicheskii zhurnal [Astron. Lett.] 2009, vol. 35, no. 4, pp. 279-285. (In Russian). Obridko V.N., Shelting B.D. Some anomalies in the evolution of global and large-scale magnetic fields on the Sun as predictors of some forthcoming low cycles. Pisma v Astronomicheskii zhurnal [Astron. Lett.] 2009, vol. 35, no. 4, pp. 279-285. (In Russian). Olemskoy S.V., Kitchatinov L.L. Grand minima and north-south asymmetry of solar activity. Astrophys. J. 2013, vol. 777, iss. 1, article id. 71, p. 71. DOI: 10.1088/0004-637X/777/1/71. Olemskoy S.V., Kitchatinov L.L. Grand minima and north-south asymmetry of solar activity. Astrophys. J. 2013, vol. 777, iss. 1, article id. 71, p. 71. DOI: 10.1088/0004-637X/777/1/71. Pishkalo M.I. Preliminary forecast of the 24th and 25th cycles of solar activity based on the correlation between the characteristics of the cycles. Kinematika i fizika nebesnikh til [Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies]. 2008, vol. 24, no. 5, pp. 370-378. (In Ukrainian). Pishkalo M.I. Preliminary forecast of the 24th and 25th cycles of solar activity based on the correlation between the characteristics of the cycles. Kinematika i fizika nebesnikh til [Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies]. 2008, vol. 24, no. 5, pp. 370-378. (In Ukrainian). Vitinsky Yu.I., Kopecky M., Kuklin G.V. Statistika pyatnoobrazovatelnoi deyatelnosti Solntsa [Statistics of sunspot-forming activity of the Sun]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1986, 296 p. (In Russian). Vitinsky Yu.I., Kopecky M., Kuklin G.V. Statistika pyatnoobrazovatelnoi deyatelnosti Solntsa [Statistics of sunspot-forming activity of the Sun]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1986, 296 p. (In Russian). URL: https://www.sidc.be/silso/forecasts (accessed February 15, 2023). URL: https://www.sidc.be/silso/forecasts (accessed February 15, 2023). URL: https://www.sidc.be/silso/monthlyhemisphericplot (accessed February 15, 2023). URL: https://www.sidc.be/silso/monthlyhemisphericplot (accessed February 15, 2023). URL: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression (accessed February 15, 2023 URL: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression (accessed February 15, 2023