Forestry Engineering Journal Forestry Engineering Journal Лесотехнический журнал 2222-7962 7772 10.12737/14155 Природопользование Nature Management Природопользование The influence of drought on tree growth in Germany – from models to general statements Влияние засухи на рост деревьев в Германии – от моделей к общим положениям Бек Вольфганг Bek Volfgang Нахтин Марко Nakhtin Marko Мюллер Юрген Myuller Yurgen 27 10 2015 27 10 2015 5 3 76 83 https://zh-szf.ru/en/nauka/article/7772/view

Научная методика выявления взаимосвязи климат-радиальный прирост – обычно многопараметрическая и слишком сложная для лиц, принимающих решения, и нуждается в более простых подходах. Мы анализируем взаимосвязь между климатом и ростом де-ревьев в Германии при помощи 89 древесно-кольцевых хронологий ели обыкновенной, сосны обыкновенной и бука европейского. Для обнаружения взаимосвязей климат-радиальный прирост и моделирования колебаний относительного древесного прироста, обусловленного влиянием климатических сценариев, использовался пакет статистического анализа CLIMTREG.

The scientific perspective on the climate-growth relationship is usually multivariate and too complex for decision makers, who need simpler statements. We analyse the relationships between the climate and tree growth with the help of 89 tree ring chronologies for Norway spruce, Scots pine and European beech in Germany. The statistical analysis tool CLIMTREG is used to discover climate-growth relationships and to model relative increment deviations caused by the force of climate scenario data.

Ель обыкновенная Сосна обыкновенная Бук европейский взаимосвязь климат-радиальный прирост climate-growth relationship Norway spruce Scots pine European beech

Jacob D., Göttel H., Kotlarski S., Lorenz P., Sieck K. Klimaauswirkungen und Anpassung in Deutschland - Phase 1: Erstellung regionaler Klimaszenarien für Deutschland Umweltbundesamt, Dessau-Roßlau, 2008. Jacob D., Göttel H., Kotlarski S., Lorenz P., Sieck K. Klimaauswirkungen und Anpassung in Deutschland - Phase 1: Erstellung regionaler Klimaszenarien für Deutschland Umweltbundesamt, Dessau-Roßlau, 2008. Fritts H.C. Tree Rings and Climate. Academic Press, London, 1976 Fritts H.C. Tree Rings and Climate. Academic Press, London, 1976 Beck W., Sanders T.G.M., Pofahl U., CLIMTREG: Detecting temporal changes in climate-growth reactions - A computer program using intra-annual daily and yearly moving time intervals of variable width. Dendrochronologia, 2013, no. 31 (3), pp.232-241. Beck W., Sanders T.G.M., Pofahl U., CLIMTREG: Detecting temporal changes in climate-growth reactions - A computer program using intra-annual daily and yearly moving time intervals of variable width. Dendrochronologia, 2013, no. 31 (3), pp.232-241. Beck W. Impact of drought and heat on tree and stand vitality - results of the study com-missioned by the Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection. In: TRACE - tree rings in archaeology, climatology and ecology : Proceedings of the Dendrosymposium 2010, April 22nd - 25th, Freiburg, Germany, 2011, Vol. 9, pp. 20-27 Beck W. Impact of drought and heat on tree and stand vitality - results of the study com-missioned by the Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection. In: TRACE - tree rings in archaeology, climatology and ecology : Proceedings of the Dendrosymposium 2010, April 22nd - 25th, Freiburg, Germany, 2011, Vol. 9, pp. 20-27 Thünen Institute. Third National Forest Inventory - Results Database, 77Z1JI_L235of_2012_bi / 2014-6-10 16:7:59.927, share of area in total area forest + non-forest [%] by Land and tree species group (calculated pure stand), Filter: year=2012, https://bwi.info, (16/07/2015), 2014 Thünen Institute. Third National Forest Inventory - Results Database, 77Z1JI_L235of_2012_bi / 2014-6-10 16:7:59.927, share of area in total area forest + non-forest [%] by Land and tree species group (calculated pure stand), Filter: year=2012, https://bwi.info, (16/07/2015), 2014 Allen R.G., Smith M., Perrier A., Pereira L.S. An Update for the Definition of Reference Evapotranspiration, 1994, pp. 1-92. Allen R.G., Smith M., Perrier A., Pereira L.S. An Update for the Definition of Reference Evapotranspiration, 1994, pp. 1-92. DVWK. Ermittlung der Verdunstung von Land- und Wasserflächen. Deutscher Verband für Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturbau (DVWK) e. V. DVWK-Merkblätter zur Wasserwirtschaft 238. 1996. Bonn. DVWK. Ermittlung der Verdunstung von Land- und Wasserflächen. Deutscher Verband für Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturbau (DVWK) e. V. DVWK-Merkblätter zur Wasserwirtschaft 238. 1996. Bonn. Meinshausen M., Smith S.J., Calvin K., Daniel J.S., Kainuma M.L.T., Lamarque J.F., Ma-tsumoto K., Montzka S.A., Raper S.C.B., Riahi K., Thomson A., Velders G.J.M., van Vuuren D.P.P. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Climatic Change 109: 2011, pp. 213-241. doi 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z Meinshausen M., Smith S.J., Calvin K., Daniel J.S., Kainuma M.L.T., Lamarque J.F., Ma-tsumoto K., Montzka S.A., Raper S.C.B., Riahi K., Thomson A., Velders G.J.M., van Vuuren D.P.P. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Climatic Change 109: 2011, pp. 213-241. doi 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z Wechsung F., Wechsung M. Dryer years and brighter sky - the predictable simulation out-comes for Germany´s warmer climate from the weather resampling model STARS. International Journal of Climatology: n/a-n/a - 2014. doi 10.1002/joc.4220 Wechsung F., Wechsung M. Dryer years and brighter sky - the predictable simulation out-comes for Germany´s warmer climate from the weather resampling model STARS. International Journal of Climatology: n/a-n/a - 2014. doi 10.1002/joc.4220 Zang C., Pretzsch H., Rothe A. Size-dependent responses to summer drought in Scots pine, Norway spruce and common oak. Trees 26: 2012, pp. 557-569. doi 10.1007/s00468-011-0617-z Zang C., Pretzsch H., Rothe A. Size-dependent responses to summer drought in Scots pine, Norway spruce and common oak. Trees 26: 2012, pp. 557-569. doi 10.1007/s00468-011-0617-z Geßler A., Keitel C., Kreuzwieser J., Matyssek R., Seiler W., Rennenberg H. Potential risks for European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in a changing climate. Trees 21: 2007, pp. 1-11. doi 10.1007/s00468-006-0107-x Geßler A., Keitel C., Kreuzwieser J., Matyssek R., Seiler W., Rennenberg H. Potential risks for European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in a changing climate. Trees 21: 2007, pp. 1-11. doi 10.1007/s00468-006-0107-x Hartl-Meier C., Zang C., Dittmar C., Esper J., Goettlein A., Rothe A. Vulnerability of Norway spruce to climate change in mountain forests of the European Alps. Climate Research 60: 2014, pp. 119-132. doi 10.3354/cr01226 Hartl-Meier C., Zang C., Dittmar C., Esper J., Goettlein A., Rothe A. Vulnerability of Norway spruce to climate change in mountain forests of the European Alps. Climate Research 60: 2014, pp. 119-132. doi 10.3354/cr01226 Sanders T., Pitman R., Broadmeadow M., Soil type modifies climate-growth response of beech in Southern Britain.in Gärtner H., Rozenberg P., Montès P., Bertel O., Heinrich I., and Helle G., editors. Proceedings of the DENDROSYMPOSIUM 2011. Scientific Technical Report STR12/03, 2012 - Potsdam, Germany, Orléans, France. Sanders T., Pitman R., Broadmeadow M., Soil type modifies climate-growth response of beech in Southern Britain.in Gärtner H., Rozenberg P., Montès P., Bertel O., Heinrich I., and Helle G., editors. Proceedings of the DENDROSYMPOSIUM 2011. Scientific Technical Report STR12/03, 2012 - Potsdam, Germany, Orléans, France.