Tula, Russian Federation
This article focuses on the retrospective, the current situation and the future development of the banking system in the Russian Federation. The relevance of the topic mentioned in the study is caused not only by structural changes in the economy, monetary policy volatility, but also by systemic risks of the financial sector that have been emerging since the beginning of 2022 in response to global challenges and "nuclear" financial strikes aimed at containing and destroying not only the banking but also the financial system of our country. The key problems identified in the study include the size of the real interest rate, which is one of the highest in the world and negatively affects the economy and the banking system as a whole, including the comparative dynamics of real rates in differentiated economies over current periods. The inflationary component was characterized as a factor negatively affecting the development of the banking system and correlating with the "compression" of bank loan portfolios. The article presents an assessment of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, which, according to many financial analysts and experts, cannot cope with inflation targeting through a single instrument - the key interest rate. The study demonstrates the dynamics of the assets of the banking system and their ratio to GDP, the share of household funds to the assets of the banking system, profits, profitability and the volume of the loan portfolio. The element of scientific novelty is determined by the practical method of extrapolating data from the analysis and generalization of previous periods of the financial sector, the so-called retrospective analysis, for the future development of the banking system of the Russian Federation in the coming years. In conclusion, based on the analysis, the author's economic vision for the future development of the banking system in the Russian Federation is presented with a certain probability, depending on external and internal factors.
retrospective, perspective, banking system, loan portfolio, profit, key rate
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