Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov (Department of Socio-Cultural Design and Development of Territories, professor)
Moskva, Moscow, Russian Federation
The relevance of this study is determined by the fact that, in today's economic environment, the development of transport infrastructure is crucial for national economic development. Suffice it to say that the term "transport infrastructure" appears approximately 500 times in the Transport Strategy of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2030, with a forecast for the period up to 2035. Given ongoing climate change, considering its impact on the development of national transport infrastructure is crucial, which determined the choice of a highly relevant research topic. The aim of the presented study is to analyze climate change factors influencing the development of national transport infrastructure in order to improve the efficiency of the latter’s development by taking into account the nature and degree of influence of the former. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of a neural network model for analyzing the impact of climatic factors on transport infrastructure. This model includes: the input neural network layer—the influencing climatic factors (including air temperature; precipitation; permafrost characteristics and area; desert and semi-desert characteristics and area; and wind); the hidden neural network layer—the correlation relationships between the influencing climatic factors; and the output neural network layer—the response of various transport infrastructure facilities to climatic impacts. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in their potential use in developing models describing the multifactorial impact of climate change on the development of national transport infrastructure.
factor analysis, climate change, impact on development, national transport infrastructure
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