Russian Federation
UDC 004.414.23
The article proposes a comprehensive approach to predict-ing the possibility of performing aviation tasks in an emer-gency zone, taking into account meteorological conditions and individual characteristics of consumers of predictive information. A probabilistic discriminant model based on minimizing normalized total costs as an efficiency criterion has been developed. This approach makes it possible to switch from the traditional forecast of meteorological quantities to the forecast of the probability of a specific task, which increases the practical importance of meteorological support. The model is implemented as a linear discriminant function, the parameters of which are optimized using retrospective meteorological observation data. A comparative analysis was carried out with traditional methods of forecasting the visibility and height of the lower cloud boundary, which showed a decrease in the value of the efficiency criterion by an average of 57%. The possibilities of expanding the model by taking into account the dynamics of weather conditions, integration into the decision support system, and personalization of thresholds are considered. The prospect of introducing the developed approach into the practice of aviation control centers in emergency situations as a tool for improving flight safety and efficiency is substantiated. Special attention is paid to adapting the model to the conditions of landscape fires, when not only meteorological but also environmental parameters of the surface layer of the atmosphere are critically important.
mathematical modeling, system analysis, forecast, man-agement in conditions of uncertainty, aviation safety, emergency situation, meteorological support, decision-making, adaptive management
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