Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov (Department of Socio-Cultural Design and Development of Territories, professor)
Moskva, Moscow, Russian Federation
The article systematically examines the causes and consequences of the decline in foreign investment in US government bonds in 2024–2025. The analysis is based on data from the Treasury International Capital (TIC) system, publications of the People's Bank of China, and other central banks of countries that are major investors in US treasury bonds, including the dynamics of reserves of the main holders: China, Japan, Great Britain, Luxembourg, Belgium, the Cayman Islands, and Switzerland. The methodological base includes a comparative and regression analysis of interest rates, an analysis of capital flows, and an assessment of the impact of geopolitical and de-dollarization processes. It is shown that the decomposition of the drivers of the US government bond market (increase in yields in creditor countries, de-dollarization, Moody's downgrade of the US) explains more than 75% of the variance in the change in the Treasuries portfolio. The decrease in China's share to $765.4 billion is accompanied by a parallel increase in investments by Japan (to $1130.8 billion) and Great Britain (to $779.3 billion). The findings point to increased volatility, a shift in reserves toward gold and alternative currencies, and a need to rethink central bank strategies. The use of financial sanctions and reserve freezes has set a precedent that has forced many countries (especially those outside the G7) to reassess the risks of holding a significant portion of their assets in dollars and U.S. Treasuries. This reduces their appeal as a universal and politically neutral safe haven.
decline in international investment, US government bonds, mechanisms, regional characteristics, systemic consequences
1. Arslanalp S., Eichengreen B., & Simpson-Bell C. (2023). The Stealth Erosion of Dollar Dominance: Active Diversifiers and the Rise of Nontraditional Reserve Currencies. IMF Working Paper, WP/23/58. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
2. Balthas L., & van Wincoop E. (2022). What Drives Variation in Global Bond Holdings? NBER Working Paper No. 30015. National Bureau of Economic Research.
3. Bank for International Settlements (BIS). (2023). International banking statistics and global liquidity indicators. [Elektronnyy resurs]. (Naprimer, BIS Quarterly Review, December 2023). URL: https://www.bis.org/statistics/index.htm (Data obrascheniya: 18.05.2024).
4. Bloomberg L.P. (Finansovye dannye i novosti). [Elektronnyy resurs]. (Dannye po dohodnostyam U.S. Treasuries i indeksu DXY za 2022-2023 gg.). URL: https://www.bloomberg.com (Data obrascheniya: 18.05.2024).
5. Beck G.W., & Pantuza A. (2021). Determinants of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: A Survey of the Empirical Literature. Journal of Economic Surveys, 35(1), 136-178. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12382.
6. Cheung Y.-W., & Qian, X. (2023). Portfolio Diversification and Reserve Management. IMF Working Paper.
7. Deutsche Bank Research. Global FX Reserve Trends, 2025.
8. He D., Maziad S., Pihlman J., & Shah A. (2023). Geopolitics and Financial Fragmentation: Implications for Macro-Financial Stability. IMF Working Paper, WP/23/99. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
9. International Monetary Fund. (2024). Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER). [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A54676-C149-4CCD-9F69-032873BF193B (Data obrascheniya: 18.05.2024, ispol'zuyutsya dannye na konec 4 kv. 2023 g.).
10. Krugman P., & Obstfeld M. (2021). International Economics: Theory and Policy. Pearson.
11. Meltzer A.H. (2020). A History of the Federal Reserve, Volume 2. University of Chicago Press.
12. Reuters. "Moody’s Downgrades U.S. Debt and Global Reaction", may 2025.
13. Ruggie J.G. (2024). Geopolitics and Reserve Currency Status. World Economics Journal, 15(2), 45–68.
14. Sahin S., & Ünal A. (2025). Dedollarization Dynamics in Emerging Economies. Emerging Markets Review, 58, 100874.
15. SIFMA (Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association). (2024). US Treasury Securities Statistics. [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/us-treasury-securities-statistics/ (Data obrascheniya: 18.05.2024).
16. S.1582 - GENIUS Act. https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/1582.
17. U.S. Department of the Treasury. Treasury International Capital Data. https://home.treasury.gov/ (data obrascheniya: may 2025).
18. U.S. Department of the Treasury. (2024). Treasury International Capital (TIC) System Data. [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic-system-tables-and-charts/ (Data obrascheniya: 18.05.2024, ispol'zuyutsya dannye do fevralya 2024 g. ili godovye za 2023 g.).
19. U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO). (2024). The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034. [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59946 (Data obrascheniya: 18.05.2024).
20. Financial Times. "China Reduces U.S. Treasury Holdings as Dollar Faces Headwinds", aprel' 2025.
21. World Gold Council. (2024). Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2023. [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2023 (Data obrascheniya: 18.05.2024).
22. Narodnyy bank Kitaya. Upravlenie valyutnymi rezervami. Otchet, 2025.
23. Tebekin A.V., Petrov V.S. Global'nye posledstviya legalizacii raschetov s ispol'zovaniem steyblkoinov v SShA dlya mirovoy finansovoy sistemy. // Mezhdunarodnaya ekonomika. 2025. T. 22. № 10. S. 814-828. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33920/vne-04-2510-01; EDN: https://elibrary.ru/ZSDPQW
