Moskva, Moscow, Russian Federation
The risk of auto-roads’ functionality loss in the territories of the long-term (eternal) permafrost in connection with predicted climatic changes is estimated on road structure’s reliability value with use of the existing regulating legal documents. The quantitative risk assessment of functionality loss has been carried out by methods of probabilistic and statistical simulation for the main auto-roads in permafrost zone. It has been shown that in the climatic conditions typical for Russia’s cryolithic zone, increase in air temperature by 1 degree causes an essential increase of risk for an auto-road’s functionality loss. Temperature regime’s contrast change is the second significant factor influencing the risk.
operation of auto-roads, functionality violation risk, permafrost soils, climate change, statistical simulation
1. Введение
Автомобильные дороги, расположенные в зонах наличия мерзлых и вечномерзлых грунтов, отличаются особым режимом эксплуатации, связанным со специфическими природно-климатическими условиями. Основным условием обеспечения достаточной функциональности автодороги выступает сохранение определенного постоянного температурного режима грунтов в основании земляного полотна, предусмотренного при ее проектировании и строительстве. Нарушение этого режима в процессе эксплуатации вследствие происходящих и прогнозируемых климатических изменений закономерно приводит к просадкам в основании земляного полотна дороги, и, как следствие, к чрезмерной деформации дорожного покрытия, существенно снижающим функциональность объекта транспортной инфраструктуры вплоть до полной её утраты [1, 2].
Изменение температурного режима вечномерзлых грунтов активизирует на придорожных территориях такие неблагоприятные экологические процессы, как изменение уровня грунтовых вод, локальное заболачивание, деградация растительных комплексов и др. Это негативное влияние на экосистемы, отличающиеся уязвимостью и крайне медленными темпами их самовосстановления [3], по размеру вреда сопоставимо с утратой отдельными участками автодорог своей эксплуатационной функциональности [4]. Поэтому риск утраты эксплуатационной функциональности автодороги на территории криолитозоны неразрывно связан с сопутствующими экологическими рисками.
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