FORECASTING THE TRANSITION OF THE ECONOMY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION TO THE DOMINANCE OF THE FIFTH TECHNO-ECONOMIC PARADIGM
Abstract and keywords
Abstract (English):
The purpose of the work was to assess the timing of the transition of the Russian economy and the economy of individual regions of Russia to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm. The contribution of the fifth technical and economic paradigm in the per capita GDP is given. Based on econometric models of economic dynamics, the time of the beginning of the domination of the fifth techno-economic paradigm in the economy of regions is estimated. The economy of individual regions has already passed to the domination of the fifth technoeconomic paradigm. In the economy of a large part of the regions, the transition to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm can expected many years and decades hence. Estimates of the expected timeframe for the transition to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm are received, based on the assumption of the preservation of economic development trends in 2001–2015.

Keywords:
fifth techno-economic paradigm, dominance, terms, regions, econometric models.
Text

Задачей работы являлась оценка сроков перехода экономики российских регионов к доминированию пятого технологического уклада, который доминирует в экономике развитых стран.

References

1. Basovskiy L.E., Basovskaya E.N. Postindustrial’nye uklady v jekonomike Rossii [Post-industrial structures in the Russian economy]. Moscow, INFRA-M Publ., 2017. 159 p.

2. Maevskiy V. Vvedenie v evolyutsionnuyu makroekonomiku [Introduction to evolutionary macroeconomics]. Moscow, Yaponiya segodnya Publ., 1997.

3. Hirooka M. Innovation Dynamism and Economic Growth. A Nonlinear Perspective. Cheltenham, UK; Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar. 2006.

4. Perez C. Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages Paperback. 2003.

5. Maddison A. Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD. Available at: http//www.ggdc.net/maddison / Historical_

6. Basovskiy L.E. Vklad postindustrial’nykh ukladov v dushevoy VVP Rossii, otsenivaemyy po metodologii MVF [The contribution of postindustrial ways in the per capita GDP of Russia, estimated according to the methodology of the IMF]. Ekonomika [Economics]. 2016, V. 4, I. 6, pp. 13-15.

7. Basovskiy L.E. Vklad novykh postindustrial’nykh ukladov v dushevoy VVP evropeyskikh regionov Rossii [Contribution of new postindustrial modes to the per capita GDP of European regions of Russia]. Ekonomika [Economics]. 2016, V. 4, I. 6, pp. 4-6.

8. Levkina N.N. Vklad novykh postindustrial’nykh ukladov v dushevoy VRP regionov Ural’skogo federal’nogo okruga Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Contribution of new postindustrial structures in the per capita GRP of the regions of the Urals Federal District of the Russian Federation]. Ekonomika [Economics]. 2016, V. 4, I. 6, pp. 63-67.

9. Levkina N.N. O rezul’tatakh analiza vklada novykh postindustrial’nykh ukladov v dushevoy VRP regionov Sibirskogo federal’nogo okruga Rossiyskoy Federatsii [On the results of analysis of the contribution of new postindustrial structures in the per capita GRP of the regions of the Siberian Federal District of the Russian Federation]. Ekonomika [Economics]. 2017, V. 5, I. 1, pp. 22-26.

10. Shishkin A.N. Vklad novykh postindustrial’nykh ukladov v dushevoy VVP regionov Dal’nevostochnogo federal’nogo okruga [Contribution of new postindustrial structures in the per capita GDP of the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District]. Ekonomika [Economics]. 2016, V. 4, I. 6, pp. 63-67.

11. Basovskiy L.E., Lomovcev D.A., Basovskaja E.N. Prognozirovanie perehoda jekonomiki Rossijskoj Federacii k dominirovaniju pjatogo tehnologicheskogo uklada [Forecasting the transition of the economy of the Russian Federation to the dominance of the fifth technological order]. Ekonomika [Economics]. 2015, V. 5, I. 5, pp. 4-8.

Login or Create
* Forgot password?