Pushkino, Moscow, Russian Federation
Timely availability of accurate burned out area data is a key management aspect in forest protection arrange-ments. Special operation multilevel net-work including field surveys of burned out areas has been established now to verify appropriate data accuracy. In the mean time extensive levels of information from various sources accumulated in wildfire databases enable statistical assessment of the data accuracy drastically reducing time and financial costs of verification operations. Mathematically proven that amount of numbers that specify real natural facilities may grow exponentially due to the Benford law. The paper proves applicability of the Benford law provisions in assessment of wildfire area data accuracy through analysis of first figure occurrence in numbers specifying forest covered burned out area in the Russian Federation territory in 2016 and assessed a minimum set of values needed for an adequate result. In addition the paper highlights an opportunity of variously outsourced data accuracy comparative analysis. Taking into consideration that variation of individual figure occurrence frequency in analyzed value packages may have a different sign for various figures it is offered to apply an indicator representing a mean value of appropriate figure occurrence probability variation modules. The offered procedure based on the Benford law application may be a part of a risk-targeted approach to plan control supervisory operations in forest relations.
wildfires, statistical analysis, information technologies, risk targeted approach
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