Russian Federation
Uhta, Syktyvkar, Russian Federation
Planirovaniyu proizvodstvennyh sil na predpriyatii v nastoyaschee vremya udelyayut vazhnoe znachenie, a sledovatel'no k metodam prognozirovaniya otnosyatsya bolee trebovatel'no. Glavnym elementom proizvodstvennyh sil yavlyaetsya perspektivnaya potrebnost' v material'nyh resursah. Dlya ee opredeleniya na dlitel'nuyu perspektivu ne stoit polagat'sya na prostye sposoby ekonomicheskogo prognozirovaniya, a neobhodimo razrabatyvat' i ispol'zovat' osoboe metodicheskoe obespechenie, kotoroe budet sootvetstvovat' specifike i otvechat' zadacham i celyam predplanovyh raschetov konkretnoy territorii. V stat'e nami rassmotreny modeli, prednaznachennye dlya resheniya dvuh grupp zadach: korrelyacionno-regressionnoe modelirovanie prognoza ekonomicheskih pokazateley vvoza-vyvoza lesomaterialov i statisticheskoe modelirovanie prognoza po dinamicheskim ryadam. Dlya opredeleniya perspektivnoy potrebnosti v lesnyh resursah prinyatye metody i modeli dolzhny otvechat' glavnym kriteriyam social'no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya, dolgosrochnym celyam, nauchno-tehnicheskomu progressu v oblasti potrebleniya material'nyh resursov, territorial'nomu razdeleniyu i specificheskim osobennostyam regionov. K tomu zhe, predlagaemye metody dolzhny davat' vozmozhnost' provodit' raschety v usloviyah neopredelennyh pokazateley i otsutstviya podrobnyh tehniko-ekonomicheskih dannyh. Zadachu opredeleniya perspektivnoy potrebnosti v material'nyh resursah mozhno reshit' raznymi metodami, no glavnoe mesto v kompleksnom metodologicheskom obespechenii dolzhny zanyat' ekonomiko-statisticheskie metody, tak kak oni imeyut ryad preimuschestv po sravneniyu s drugimi. Statisticheskie metody, ispol'zuemye pri prognozirovanii, dayut udovletvoritel'nye po tochnosti rezul'taty, esli tendenciya izmeneniya rassmatrivaemogo pokazatelya i mehanizm formirovaniya ego znacheniya ustoychivy i sohranyayutsya v analiziruemom periode. Tochnost' rezul'tatov budet uhudshat'sya pri rezkih izmeneniyah tendenciy i haraktera vzaimosvyazey. Pri kratkosrochnom, naprimer godovom, planirovanii rezkie izmeneniya proishodyat redko, chto obespechivaet bolee shirokuyu oblast' primeneniya statisticheskih metodov.
potoki, lesomaterialy, modeli, optimizaciya, dorogi, rasstoyanie, celevaya funkciya, planirovanie.
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