employee
Tula, Tula, Russian Federation
Tula, Tula, Russian Federation
The modeling of Kondratiev cycles in economic dynamics in the form of Fourier series has been improved. Models have been developed that allow, by varying the reference points and the duration of the periods, to obtain estimates of these parameters with high accuracy and give estimates of accuracy in the form of dispersion. On the basis of the obtained models and algorithms, estimates of the beginnings of the formation of the duration of the periods of Kondratiev cycles in developed countries were obtained and models of the productivity of technological structures in the developed countries of the modern world were built. The productivity of the fourth technological order was determined by the per capita income of 2,500 US dollars in 1990. The productivity of the fifth technological order was determined by the per capita income of 12,200 US dollars in 1990. The productivity of the sixth technological order was determined by the per capita income of 25,300 US dollars in 1990. Modeling made it possible to predict the end of the downward wave of the modern Kondratiev cycle in world economic dynamics, the systemic global economic crisis associated with the transition to the dominance of the sixth technological order in 2049–2055. Intensification of crises associated with business cycles, financial and investment cycles associated with the downward half-wave of the Kondratiev cycle is predicted starting from 2024-2027.
Kondratyev cycles, Fourier series, models, periods, formation moments, technological modes, productivity, forecasts, crisis
1. Basovskiy L.E., Basovskaya E.N. Postindustrial'nye uklady v ekonomike Rossii : monografiya. M.: INFRA-M, 2018. 159 s.
2. Glaz'ev S.Yu. Teoriya dolgosrochnogo tehniko-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya. M.: VlaDar, 1993. 310 s.
3. Glaz'ev S. Strategiya operezhayuschego razvitiya rossiyskoy ekonomiki v usloviyah global'nogo krizisa. M.: Ekonomika, 2010.
4. Kasti D. Ekstremal'nye sobytiya kak determinanty shestoy Kondrat'evskiy volny // Forsayt. 2013. T. 7. № 1. S. 58-71.
5. Maevskiy V. Vvedenie v evolyucionnuyu makroekonomiku. M.: Yaponiya sego-dnya, 1997. 106 c.
6. Sadovnichiy V.A. Akaev A.A., Korotaev A.V., Malkov S.Yu. Modelirovanie i prognozirovanie mirovoy dinamiki. M.: ISPI RAN, 2012. 360 s.
7. Smirnov A.S. Kakaya real'nost' stoit za «volnami Kondrat'eva»? Nastoyaschie dlinnye cikly // Kondrat'evskie volny. 2014. № 3. S. 93-169.
8. Tatarkin A.I., Romanova O.A., Akberdina V.V. Formirovanie vysokotehnologichnogo sektora v industrial'nom region // Zhurnal novoy ekonomicheskoy associacii. 2014. № 2. S.195-200.
9. Freeman C. Technical Innovation, Diffusion and Long Cycles of Economic De-velopment. The Long-Wave Debate. Berlin, 1987.
10. Hirooka M. Innovation Dynamism and Economic Growth. A Nonlinear Perspective. Cheltenham, UK; Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2006.
11. Perez C. Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages. Elgar Publishing, 2003.
12. Maddison A. Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD. URL: http//www.ggdc.net/maddison/Historical_Statistics/horizontal-file_02-2010.xls (data obrascheniya: 25.07.2016).
13. Anderson Theodore W. The Statistical Analysis of Time Series. Wiley-Interscience; 1st edition. 1994. 704 p.
14. Wackerly Dennis, Mendenhall William, Scheaffe Richard Lyu Mathematical Statistics with Applications 7th Edition. Thomson Brooks Cole. 7-th edition. 2008. 944 p.
15. Basovskiy L.E., Basovskaya E.N. Sokraschenie dlitel'nosti ciklov Kondrat'eva v ne lidiruyuschih stranah // Nauchnye issledovaniya i razrabotki. Ekonomi-ka. 2017. № 5. S. 15-19. DOI: https://doi.org/10.12737/article_59e5d65fba8212.91273976 (data obrascheniya: 02.02.2022).
16. Basovskaya E.N., Basovskiy L.E. Perspektivy razvitiya sistemnogo mirovogo ekonomicheskogo krizisa // Nauchnye issledovaniya i razrabotki. Ekonomika. 2019. № 1. S. 4-7.DOI: https://doi.org/10.12737/article_5c5983d5290c77.78838679 (data obrascheniya: 12.02.2022).
