On the State and Forecast of Development of Labour Market and Employment in the Russian Federation (2006–2017)

E. Pirozhenko; S. Anikeev; V. Rozhkov; N. Loktyukhina; Ivan Dyemidov; Vyachyeslav N. Bobkov

doi:10.12737/10244

ON THE STATE AND FORECAST OF DEVELOPMENT OF LABOUR MARKET AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (2006–2017) On the State and Forecast of Development of Labour Market and Employment in the Russian Federation (2006–2017)

АА Аа

Published in Level of Life of the Population of Regions of Russia · Pages 8–22 · Rubric: Unstability of employment

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12737/10244

Received: 17.03.2015 Accepted: 17.03.2015 Published: 17.03.2015 Language of publication: RUS

Authors

E. Pirozhenko

S. Anikeev

V. Rozhkov

N. Loktyukhina

Ivan Dyemidov

Vyachyeslav N. Bobkov

E. Pirozhenko

S. Anikeev

V. Rozhkov

Academic degree: doctor of economic sciences

Academy of Labour and Social Relations

N. Loktyukhina

Ivan Dyemidov

Vyachyeslav N. Bobkov

Academic degree: doctor of economic sciences

Rossiyskiy ekonomicheskiy universitet im. G.V. Plehanova Nauchnyy rukovoditel' Rukovoditel' nauchnyh proektov, Glavnyy nauchnyy sotrudnik · Russian Federation

ABSTRACT

Relevance. The article analyzes the current Russian labour market conditions on the basis of official data. The Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017 prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development is considered. Object. Suggestions and comments on the contents of the draft Forecast of Economic Development of Russia on the labour market and employment are given. Subject of the Study. Measures to promote employment, regulate of labour migration processes and increase the minimum earings to the subsistence level. The expediency of reflecting in the draft Forecast the influence of newly adopted laws and regulations on the labour market is stressed. Comments on the options of the forecast of the unemployment rate up to 2017 are given. The authors bring three variants of the situation on the labour market until 2017. Implementating the first scenario is assumed provided the relative stabilization of the geopolitical situation is achieved. Purpose. The second variant of the forecast (moderate — optimistic) is proposed. The negative variant of the forecast by presenting the calculated indicators of the labour market and employment and their dynamics is substantiated. General conclusions about the situation on the labour market in the future until 2017 are given. The factors of government economic policies that directly affect the dynamics of the level of employment are specified.

KEYWORDS

labour market, employment, an unemployment rate, forecast, labour migration, compensation.

Text

1. Анализ текущей ситуации на рынке труда Российской Федерации¹

Численность населения начиная с 2009 г. постепенно росла, что связано с увеличением числа родившихся в целом по России. Одновременно проявилась негативная тенденция сокращения количества населения в трудоспособном возрасте и увеличения численности населения старше трудоспособного возраста [Забелина, Романюк, 2014, с. 156–165]. Уровень занятости этой категории населения также растет. Позитивным является и увеличение числа работающих инвалидов, что, вероятно, связано с реализацией государственных программ, направленных на содействие занятости данной категории граждан [РБК. Минтруд планирует полностью решить проблему занятости инвалидов к 2020 году]. Уровень безработицы (рассчитанный по методологии Международной организации труда) начиная с 2009 г. постепенно снижался и составил в 2014 г. 5,8% от экономически активного населения. Среднемесячная номинальная начисленная заработная плата работников организаций возросла в три раза с 2006 по 2014 г. Более наглядно динамика данных представлена на графиках и диаграммах (см. рис. 1–4).

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¹ См.: «Труд и занятость населения» (2013 г.), «Экономическая активность населения» (2014 г.) и др.

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GOST

Pirozhenko E., Anikeev S., Rozhkov V., Loktyukhina N., Dyemidov I., Bobkov V. N. On the State and Forecast of Development of Labour Market and Employment in the Russian Federation (2006–2017) // Level of Life of the Population of Regions of Russia. 2015. no. 1. pp. 8-22. DOI: https://doi.org/10.12737/10244. (Date of access 15.09.2026).

MLA

E. Pirozhenko, Anikeev S., Rozhkov V., Loktyukhina N., Dyemidov I., Bobkov V. N.. "On the State and Forecast of Development of Labour Market and Employment in the Russian Federation (2006–2017)." Level of Life of the Population of Regions of Russia 3.1 (2015): 8-22. DOI: https://doi.org/10.12737/10244.

APA

Pirozhenko E., Anikeev S., Rozhkov V., Loktyukhina N., Dyemidov I., Bobkov V. N. (2015). On the State and Forecast of Development of Labour Market and Employment in the Russian Federation (2006–2017). Level of Life of the Population of Regions of Russia, 3(1), 8-22. https://doi.org/10.12737/10244

Chicago

E. Pirozhenko, Anikeev S., Rozhkov V., Loktyukhina N., Dyemidov I., Bobkov V. N.. "On the State and Forecast of Development of Labour Market and Employment in the Russian Federation (2006–2017)." Level of Life of the Population of Regions of Russia 3, no. 1 (2015): 8-22. https://doi.org/10.12737/10244.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Pirozhenko E., Anikeev S., Rozhkov V., Loktyukhina N., Dyemidov I., Bobkov V. N. | title = On the State and Forecast of Development of Labour Market and Employment in the Russian Federation (2006–2017) | journal = Level of Life of the Population of Regions of Russia | year = 2015 | volume = 3 | issue = 1 | pages = 8-22 | doi = 10.12737/10244 }}

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ON THE STATE AND FORECAST OF DEVELOPMENT OF LABOUR MARKET AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (2006–2017) On the State and Forecast of Development of Labour Market and Employment in the Russian Federation (2006–2017)

1. Анализ текущей ситуации на рынке труда Российской Федерации1

Confirmation

1. Анализ текущей ситуации на рынке труда Российской Федерации¹