The Results of the Research of Cycles of the Australian Economic Dynamics

Nataliya Levkina

doi:10.12737/11581

THE RESULTS OF THE RESEARCH OF CYCLES OF THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DYNAMICS The Results of the Research of Cycles of the Australian Economic Dynamics

АА Аа

Published in Scientific Research and Development. Economics · Pages 37–47 · Rubric: Сommon questions

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12737/11581

Received: 10.06.2015 Accepted: 17.06.2015 Published: 17.06.2015 Language of publication: RUS

Authors

Nataliya Levkina

Academic degree: candidate of economic sciences

Leo Tolstoy Tula State Pedagogical University docent

ABSTRACT

The article presents the results of the analysis of Australia`s economic dynamics in order to identify Kondratiev waves (cycles). The analysis of the time series of real per capita GDP for the period from 1820 to 2008 had revealed the presence of cycles of economic dynamics with a period of about 50 years, which can be identified as Kondratieff cycles (waves). The results of the analysis showed that the formation of Kondratieff cycles in the Australian economy occurred in the late XIX — early XX century. The maximum value of these cycles` potency was reached in the middle of XX century, then their potency began to fall. The results of the research may be used in order to determine the time of beginning of these cycles and correlation between Kondratieff cycles and dominant technological modes.

KEYWORDS

economic dynamics, business cycle, Kondratiev waves, trend, spectral analysis, technological modes.

Text

Работа выполнена при поддержке гранта РГНФ № 15-02-00369.

Экономические процессы зачастую характеризуются цикличностью. Циклы в экономике различаются продолжительностью, причинами и условиями возникновения и развития, последствиями [1, 5, 9]. Для моделирования и прогнозирования макроэкономических процессов особое значение имеют циклы, выявленные и исследованные Н.Д. Кондратьевым [4].

Следует отметить, что по-прежнему нет единого мнения относительно продолжительности периода данных циклов: исследователи указывают различные значения в диапазоне от 40 до 60 лет [1, 3, 7, 8]. В рамках данного исследования принимается, что циклы (волны) Кондратьева характеризуются периодом порядка 50 лет.

Среди сторонников теории длинных волн Н.Д. Кондратьева есть исследователи, которые отмечают связь данных циклов с технологическими укладами, доминирующими в экономике, и широкие возможности, которые предоставит построение моделей, связывающих динамику циклов Кондратьева с технологическими укладами [1, 2, 6].

Для построения моделей технологических укладов в России необходимо провести предварительную работу по идентификации циклов Кондратьева в экономической динамике различных стран, периодизации данных циклов, а также зарождения и распространения различных технологических укладов.

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GOST

Levkina N. N. The Results of the Research of Cycles of the Australian Economic Dynamics // Scientific Research and Development. Economics. 2015. no. 3. pp. 37-47. DOI: https://doi.org/10.12737/11581. (Date of access 16.09.2026).

MLA

Nataliya Levkina. "The Results of the Research of Cycles of the Australian Economic Dynamics." Scientific Research and Development. Economics 3.3 (2015): 37-47. DOI: https://doi.org/10.12737/11581.

APA

Levkina N. N. (2015). The Results of the Research of Cycles of the Australian Economic Dynamics. Scientific Research and Development. Economics, 3(3), 37-47. https://doi.org/10.12737/11581

Chicago

Nataliya Levkina. "The Results of the Research of Cycles of the Australian Economic Dynamics." Scientific Research and Development. Economics 3, no. 3 (2015): 37-47. https://doi.org/10.12737/11581.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Levkina N. N. | title = The Results of the Research of Cycles of the Australian Economic Dynamics | journal = Scientific Research and Development. Economics | year = 2015 | volume = 3 | issue = 3 | pages = 37-47 | doi = 10.12737/11581 }}

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THE RESULTS OF THE RESEARCH OF CYCLES OF THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DYNAMICS The Results of the Research of Cycles of the Australian Economic Dynamics

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