International investment in US treasuries:  dynamics, regional characteristics,  and systemic implications

V. S. Petrov; A. Tebekin

UDC 336.1

INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT IN US TREASURIES:  DYNAMICS, REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS,  AND SYSTEMIC IMPLICATIONS International investment in US treasuries:  dynamics, regional characteristics,  and systemic implications

АА Аа

Published in Journal of economic studies · Volume 11, Issue 5 · Pages 52–64 · Rubric: Finance

Received: 29.09.2025 Accepted: 24.10.2025 Published: 24.10.2025 Language of publication: ru-RU

Authors

V. S. Petrov

A. Tebekin

V. S. Petrov

Academic degree: candidate of economic sciences

ANOVO "Moscow International University" Associate Professor · Department of Economics and Management · Russian Federation

A. Tebekin

Academic degree: doctor of economic sciences ; doctor of technical sciences

Science rang: professor

Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov professor · Department of Socio-Cultural Design and Development of Territories · Russian Federation

State University of Education Russian Federation

Academy of Labour and Social Relations Мoscow

ABSTRACT

The article systematically examines the causes and consequences of the decline in foreign investment in US government bonds in 2024–2025. The analysis is based on data from the Treasury International Capital (TIC) system, publications of the People's Bank of China, and other central banks of countries that are major investors in US treasury bonds, including the dynamics of reserves of the main holders: China, Japan, Great Britain, Luxembourg, Belgium, the Cayman Islands, and Switzerland.  The methodological base includes a comparative and regression analysis of interest rates, an analysis of capital flows, and an assessment of the impact of geopolitical and de-dollarization processes.  It is shown that the decomposition of the drivers of the US government bond market (increase  in yields in creditor countries, de-dollarization, Moody's downgrade of the US) explains more than 75% of the variance in the change in the Treasuries portfolio. The decrease in China's share  to $765.4 billion is accompanied by a parallel increase in investments by Japan (to $1130.8 billion) and Great Britain (to $779.3 billion). The findings point to increased volatility, a shift in reserves toward gold and alternative currencies, and a need to rethink central bank strategies. The use  of financial sanctions and reserve freezes has set a precedent that has forced many countries (especially those outside the G7) to reassess the risks of holding a significant portion of their assets in dollars and U.S. Treasuries. This reduces their appeal as a universal and politically neutral safe haven.

KEYWORDS

decline in international investment, US government bonds, mechanisms, regional characteristics, systemic consequences

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Otvetstvennyy redaktor

Elena Titova

titova_en@infra-m.ru

editor-in-chief

A. Tebekin

Tebekin@gmail.com

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INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT IN US TREASURIES: DYNAMICS, REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS, AND SYSTEMIC IMPLICATIONS International investment in US treasuries: dynamics, regional characteristics, and systemic implications

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INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT IN US TREASURIES:  DYNAMICS, REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS,  AND SYSTEMIC IMPLICATIONS International investment in US treasuries:  dynamics, regional characteristics,  and systemic implications