Russian Federation
Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation
Russian Federation
UDC 336.67
UDC 33
The article examines the relationship between the phases of the interest rate cycle and the dividend policy of Russian public companies. The relevance of the topic is driven by the high volatility of monetary conditions in 2016-2025, as well as the insufficient development in Russian academia of approaches that consider dividend decisions as an adaptive instrument of corporate governance in response to changing macroeconomic parameters. The study identifies seven qualitatively distinct phases of the interest rate cycle, each characterized by a specific ratio between dividend yield and deposit yield. It is established that during periods of low interest rates, a positive risk premium emerges, stimulating capital inflows into equity instruments, whereas during periods of high interest rates, a yield inversion occurs, in which risk-free deposits become more advantageous than investments in stocks. Critical points are identified where the intensification of the conflict of interest between shareholders and management necessitates a revision of dividend policy toward more conservative strategies.
dividend policy, central bank key rate, deposit rate, corporate governance, Russian equity market
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