Import substitution provide multidirectional impact on the economy, accompanied by both positive and negative effects, nevertheless, import substitution, is a leading tool to overcome most unfavorable events in the country's economic system, which extremely aggravated in the first half of 2020. It is possible to force the development of import substitution's positive effects if there is a clear quantitative assessment of its effectiveness in terms of its impact on the growth of the Russian economy. Based on a generalization and analysis of the methods and tools for assessing the impact of import substitution on the economy used by domestic and foreign authors in their studies, scientific-methodological approaches to such an impact were identified. In model approach, an author’s assessment methodology has been developed. At the first stage using an expanded system of import substitution effectiveness indicators, which grouped by sectors of the economy, a composite indicator of the effectiveness is formed by means of principal components method. At the second stage the dependence of economic growth on a composite indicator of import substitution effectiveness is formed by means of correlation and regression analysis. General government of the economy can use our technique to shape an economic development strategy under the import substitution.
import substitution, economic growth, estimating procedures, principal components method, correlation and regression analysis
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