Дания
Смягчению глобального потепления и переходу к «зеленому» и устойчивому миру противостоят ряд барьеров и дилемм. В настоящей работе предпринят анализ некоторых барьеров и дилемм с целью выделения эффективных стратегий и решений для достижения устойчивого развития. В качестве примеров дилемм выделены следующие. • На физически конечной планете существуют пределы экономического и материального роста. Однако в большинстве индустриально развитых стран в условиях кризиса правительства призывают к дальнейшему росту. • Для ограничения роста требуется равенство, между тем в мире возрастает неравенство. • Для того чтобы избежать необратимых изменений, необходимо, чтобы увеличение средней глобальной температуры не превысило 2°С. Между тем, наблюдаемые в настоящее время тенденции обусловливают увеличение на 4 и более градусов. • Для того чтобы избежать роста средней глобальной температуры более чем на 2°С, по крайней мере 50% разведанных запасов ископаемого топлива должны оставаться в земных недрах. Между тем ряд индустриально развитых стран стимулируют освоение новых ископаемых энергетических ресурсов, таких как сланцевый газ и нефть битуминозных песчаников. • Прекращение роста численности населения облегчает переход к устойчивому развитию. Однако большинство правительств развитых стран выражают крайнюю обеспокоенность в связи со снижением численности населения в своих странах. • Центральной проблемой является тот факт, что «пределы роста» не воспринимаются серьезно финансовыми ведомствами индустриально развитых стран. Настоящая статья посвящена рассмотрению последствий «пределов роста» и поискам альтернативы «росту» для обеспечения занятости населения.
устойчивая энергетика, политические средства, «зеленый» переход.
1. Introduction
The world is presently faced with a number of serious problems including global warming and climate change, limits to economic and material growth, increasing inequities, misleading economic models and theories, and financial crises. Most national governments in the Organisation For Economic Co-Operation And Development (OECD) attempt to maintain traditional growth rates based on neoliberal principles. However, they do not appear to realize that a sustainable future requires radical changes in political, economic and institutional systems on international and national levels.
In relation to the problem of global warming, it has not been possible to date to obtain international commitments for binding reductions of CO2 emissions. However, there seems to be international consensus concerning the danger of irreversible consequences if the increase in global temperature is allowed to surpass two degrees centigrade. Recent analyses have concluded that in order to avoid this transition at least 50 % of known fossil reserves should remain untapped underground [IEA, 2012]. It is not obvious how this condition would be implemented in practice. Moreover, with the recent exploitation of non-traditional energy sources like shale gas and shale oil, the goal of limited use appears to be even more problematic. This issue should be high on the agenda of the united nations (UN), but so far it is not the case.
This paper will focus on the role of the rich industrial countries, as they are responsible for most of the present problems. In addition, such countries have the necessary economic and technological power to implement a green transition to a world that is not dependent on fossil fuels.
However, it should not be overlooked that there are a number of barriers for this transition. Strong financial power is connected to vested interests in production of fossil fuels, while concern about sustainable development is relegated as a low priority on the money-based agenda. Here, significant changes are needed to yield less power to the market and private vested interests. The paper includes concrete proposals for such changes.
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